Actuary Jared Strock discusses Medicare market conditions through data on retention, enrollment, and carrier performance. The conversation considers how benefits and network disruptions influence client movement, the value brokers provide through acquisition and service, and challenges affecting Medicare Supplement carriers. Strock also explains actuarial work and how market insights can guide an agency's local strategy.

In this episode

  • Medicare market data
  • Client retention
  • Actuarial analysis
  • Medicare Supplement economics
  • Local market strategy

Show notes

Recorded live on the floor at Medicarians Vegas 2026, Dan and Mike sit down with returning guest Jared Strock, actuary, owner of Telos Actuarial, and founder of the Medicare Market Insights newsletter, for one of the most data-rich conversations we've had on the podcast.

Jared breaks down what he's hearing from carriers, distributors, and industry insiders at the conference: less money in the system, tighter MLRs, shrinking benefits, and a market that's forcing everybody to do more with less. But it's not all doom and gloom. There are real signals of stabilization, and the carriers who've made smart strategic moves are starting to show it.

We dig into UnitedHealthcare's Q1 results and what their 9% enrollment drop actually means, why Medicare Supplement plans are under more pressure than most people realize, the $4 billion fraud case (Operation Gold Rush) that hit carriers, not the government, and what that means for rising premiums, why broker commissions are one of the best deals in healthcare and carriers have lost sight of that, how AI is (and isn't) being used at actuarial firms right now, and what Jared sees coming for the Med Supp and MA markets in 2027 and 2028.

Mike also pushes back on the industry narrative to abandon Medicare Advantage and chase annuities and explains exactly why Agent Boost's strategy is different.

If you want to understand what's actually happening beneath the surface of this industry right now, this is the episode.

Chapters

  • 0:00 Welcome - Live from Medicarians Vegas 2026
  • 0:33 Introducing Jared Strock - Telos Actuarial & Medicare Market Insights
  • 1:54 Day 3 at Medicarians - Sentiment & Key Themes
  • 2:22 "Doing More With Less" - What Everyone Is Saying
  • 3:06 CMS Funding vs. Medical Inflation - Where the Gap Is
  • 4:13 Did Carriers Actually Profit From the MA Boom Years?
  • 5:22 UnitedHealthcare Q1 Results & What the Numbers Mean
  • 6:43 The Pendulum - When Does MA Start Swinging Back?
  • 8:08 The New Normal for Carriers Going Forward
  • 9:49 Are MA Benefits Today Still Better Than 10 Years Ago?
  • 12:34 The Revenue Gap - How Distribution Is Trying to Fill the Hole
  • 14:59 Med Supp's Perfect Storm - Birthday Rule, GI & Rising Premiums
  • 17:55 Why Broker Commissions Are One of the Best Deals in Healthcare
  • 19:55 What Telos Actuarial Does & How They Help Carriers
  • 20:46 IBNR Reserves Explained
  • 23:39 Operation Gold Rush - The $4 Billion Med Supp Fraud Case
  • 24:46 What Does the Med Supp Market Look Like in 2027 and 2028?
  • 27:57 Jared's Growing Public Presence & Medicare Market Insights App
  • 31:17 AI in Insurance - Hype vs. Practical Reality
  • 33:52 Personal Connection Will Matter More as AI Grows
  • 37:03 What Jared Is Worried About and What He's Optimistic About
  • 39:21 What Mike Is Optimistic About - CMS Is Actually Listening
  • 40:56 Closing + Next Trip to Utah on the Table